"I noticed on the four-year trend-line that crime was going down from 2017-2019," said Osage County Sheriff Mike Bonham; "and then 2020 happened."

Bonham was looking at the chart of all reports taken in his office from Jan. 1 through Sept. 29 since 2017. They are all classified into the categories of assault, harassment, sex crimes, vehicle tampering, property damage, theft, and weapons charges. With the exception of vehicle tampering in 2018, the 2020 line rides higher across the board.

Two details in the trend grab his attention. The most dramatic increase is in reported thefts. The jump in 2020 did not occur, though, until March. Assaults did not stand out in 2020 until April. Many seeing these facts would conclude COVID-19 and the shutdown caused this spike. Bonham is sympathetic and doesn't deny the validity of that conclusion on face value. However, he's aware of something else he thinks is more important. It's symbiotic with the virus but probably would cause the spike without it. He feels the new bonding requirements to hold offenders have been the main instigator. "The bonding laws are the biggest thing," he asserted.

The Missouri Supreme Court has mandated an increase in the number of offenders who must be released without bond. This alone has led to a major decrease in jail populations with no other necessary factors. Bonham admits, though, thinning jail populations because of COVID-19 would also do this. Together, they're a bad recipe.

"When people are incarcerated, crime goes down," he said. “When they're not, we see charts like this.”

Yet, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Thefts and assaults are down in September 2020. Bonham is able to draw conclusions from both the coronavirus and bonding situations. First, domestic assaults skyrocketed after the stay-at-home orders began to age a little. Folks prone to violence are going to get along with each other for only a while, Bonham noted.

Once those orders were modified, some of this pressure was released. Second, there was an expected surge in “failure to appear" violations.

“This was caused by the liberal catch-and-release practices mandated by the Supreme Court,” said Bonham, noting these offenders are now being arrested again. “They get up and go to work, as long as they are free to do what they think they are called to do, and they get caught like they did before. Predictably, they fail to appear for their court dates.”

That interferes with their work. With this de facto contempt of courts, Bonham said, a bond is now being required. The sheriff added that many of these should have been in jail, or at least bonded out for the last few months. They are now facing increased incarceration and legal fees to regain their freedom.

Early in the year, jail populations were down as crime increased. Now jail populations are climbing, including here in Osage County, and these particular crimes are predictably on the decrease. Nevertheless, "a record year is coming," said Bonham, as 2020 wraps up in a few months.

He also emphasized, however, that Osage County remains one of the top five safest counties in Missouri. His deputies have, without dispute, been busier. He insists they've been up to it.